Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: September-November 2023 (SON)
Issued: 31 Aug 2023
For SON 2023, the models predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
For SON 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the region, apart from over parts of the southern Maritime Continent where there is a moderate to high confidence of above-normal temperature. In the southern Maritime Continent, the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts the highest confidence of above normal temperature, whereas the ECMWF and UKMO models (Figures 2 and 3) predict relatively lower confidence for above normal temperature or near normal temperature. Models’ skill for predicting below- and above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is relatively good.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for SON 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for SON 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.