Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: July 2026
Issued: 1 Jul 2026
For July 2026, below-normal rainfall is predicted over most of the southern ASEAN region and southern Mainland Southeast Asia.
For July 2026, over the southern ASEAN region, below-normal rainfall is predicted, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1). The highest probability of below-normal rainfall is over the central and eastern parts of the equatorial region, where most of the models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict below-normal rainfall as the dominant tercile. Model skill for below-normal rainfall is moderate to good over the eastern equatorial region and low to moderate elsewhere over the Maritime Continent.
For the northern ASEAN region, below-normal tercile is predicted for southern Mainland Southeast Asia with above-normal tercile or no dominant tercile predicted elsewhere. There is good agreement between models (more than six models) for the coast of western Mainland Southeast Asia with some agreement between the models (four to six models) elsewhere in general. Model skill is low over both southern and eastern Mailand Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for July 2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for July 2026. Where there no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for July based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 4: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for July based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.