Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: June 2026
Issued: 3 Jun 2026
For June 2026, below-normal rainfall is predicted over the Maritime Continent.
For June 2026, over the Maritime Continent, below-normal rainfall is predicted, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1). The highest probability of below-normal rainfall is over the central and eastern parts of the equatorial region, where most of the models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict below-normal rainfall as the dominant tercile. Model skill for below-normal rainfall is moderate to good over the eastern equatorial region and low to moderate elsewhere over the Maritime Continent.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, no dominant tercile is predicted for most of the region. There is little agreement between models, apart from a few small regions where there is some agreement between the models (four to six models) regarding an increase in chance of above-normal rainfall (parts of southern and northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia). Model skill is low over both southern and eastern Mailand Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for June 2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for June 2026. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for June based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 4: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for June based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.