Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: February 2023

Issued: 28 Jan 2023

For February 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the eastern Maritime Continent and Myanmar. Near-normal temperature is predicted over much of the rest of the ASEAN region.

For February 2023, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the eastern Maritime Continent and Myanmar as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). For the Maritime Continent, the NCEP model (Figure 1) has the largest region with an increased chance above-normal temperature (including Borneo), while the ECMWF model (Figure 2) confines the prediction to the east of Borneo (including the Philippines), and the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predicts above-normal temperature only over parts of eastern Indonesia. The models’ skill for above-normal temperature category for the Maritime Continent and Myanmar is low to moderate.

Elsewhere in the ASEAN region, the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4) predicts an increased chance of near-normal temperature for much of the region. Model skill is low to moderate for most of the Southeast Asia for near-normal tercile category.

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Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for February 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for February 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for February 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for February 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for February based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).

The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.