Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: October 2023
Issued: 29 Sep 2023
For October 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region.
For October 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with an exception over parts of the southern Maritime Continent where a mix of near- to above-normal temperature is predicted. All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the Maritime Continent and much of Mainland Southeast Asia. The NCEP and ECMWF models (Figures 1 and 2) predict above-normal temperature over much of the southern Maritime Continent, and the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predicts near-normal temperature over parts of the southern Maritime Continent. Models’ skill is moderate to good for predicting above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for October 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for October 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for October 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for October 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.