Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: October 2023

Issued: 29 Sep 2023

For October 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region.

For October 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with an exception over parts of the southern Maritime Continent where a mix of near- to above-normal temperature is predicted. All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the Maritime Continent and much of Mainland Southeast Asia. The NCEP and ECMWF models (Figures 1 and 2) predict above-normal temperature over much of the southern Maritime Continent, and the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predicts near-normal temperature over parts of the southern Maritime Continent. Models’ skill is moderate to good for predicting above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.

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Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for October 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for October 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for October 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for October 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for October based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).

The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.