Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: December 2025

Issued: 28 Nov 2025

For December 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent, with below- to near-normal temperature predicted over much of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. 

For December 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and northwestern Mainland Southeast Asia (Figure 1). The likelihood of above-normal temperature is high over much of the eastern Maritime Continent. Most of the models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile for the mentioned regions. Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is relatively good for most of the Maritime Continent and moderate for northwestern Mainland Southeast Asia. 

Elsewhere, below- to near-normal temperature is predicted over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia (Figure 1), with generally some models (4 – 6) in agreement with each other (Figure 2). Model skill for predicting near-to below normal temperature is low to moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia. 

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Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for December 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for December 2025. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Average climatological temperature for December based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).

The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.