Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: October 2025
Issued: 30 Sep 2025
For October 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of Southeast Asia.
For October 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of Southeast Asia (Figure 1). The likelihood of above-normal temperature is high over much of the Maritime Continent and Mainland Southeast Asia. Most of the models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile, apart from over parts of central Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the central and southern Maritime Continent. Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is relatively good for most of the Maritime Continent and moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for October 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for September 2025. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Average climatological temperature for October based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.