For September 2026, a high chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over most of Southeast Asia, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1). The main exception is over the southern Maritime Continent where a mix of below- to above-normal temperature is predicted. For this region, much of the models agree on the most likely tercile (four to six models). Outside of southern Maritime Continent, most of the models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict above-normal as the most likely tercile. Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is moderate to good, and good for below-normal temperature over the southern Maritime Continent.

Temperature

Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: September 2026