Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: November 2025
Issued: 24 Oct 2025
For November 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent, with near-normal temperature predicted over much of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia.
For November 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and northwestern Mainland Southeast Asia (Figure 1). The likelihood of above-normal temperature is high over much of the equatorial region and eastern Maritime Continent. Most of the models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile for the mentioned regions. Elsewhere over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, near-normal temperature is predicted (Figure 1) with generally some models in agreement with each other (4 – 6, Figure 2). Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is relatively good for most of the Maritime Continent and moderate for northwestern Mainland Southeast Asia. Model skill for predicting near-normal temperature is low to moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for November 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for September 2025. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Average climatological temperature for November based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.