Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: May 2026
For May 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted most of the ASEAN region.
For May 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the ASEAN region, with the highest likelihood in the equatorial region, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1). Most of the models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile for almost the entire ASEAN region, apart from some of the southernmost part and a few other areas where only some models (four to six) agree. Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good for much of the region, apart from the northernmost part where it is low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for May 2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for April 2026. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Average climatological temperature for May based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.