Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: February-April 2026 (FMA)
Issued: 31 Jan 2026
For FMA 2026, above-normal rainfall is predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent and below-normal rainfall for much of the central Maritime Continent.
For JFM 2026, an increase in chance of above -normal rainfall is predicted for most of the northeastern Maritime Continent, with an increased chance of below-normal rainfall for the most of the southern half of the region, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1). For above-normal rainfall, most models agree for the northeastern part of the region (more than six models). For below-normal rainfall, at least some of the models (4 – 6 models) agree for most of the region, with most models (more than six models) in agreement for the central and southeastern part of the region. Model skill is good over the northeastern Maritime Continent for predicting above-normal rainfall, and moderate for below-normal rainfall over the central Maritime Continent, and low to moderate elsewhere.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for FMA 2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for JFM 2026. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for JFM based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 4: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for JFM based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.