Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: January-March 2025 (JFM)
Issued: 7 Jan 2025
For JFM 2025, above-normal rainfall is predicted over the Maritime Continent, apart from over the southwestern region.
For JFM 2025, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), apart from over the southwestern region where near-normal rainfall is predicted. The ECMWF and UK Met Office models (Figures 2 and 3) have the highest confidence for above-normal rainfall. The NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts a higher chance of above-normal rainfall over the parts of the Maritime Continent north of the equator. Model skill is moderate to good for most of the Maritime Continent.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, all three models (Figures 1 – 3) agree on above-normal rainfall over much of the region. However, it is the dry season for the region and the models’ skill is generally low.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JFM 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JFM 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for JFM 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for JFM 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for JFM based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for JFM based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.