Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: January 2026
Issued: 30 Dec 2025
For January 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and northern Mainland Southeast Asia.
For January 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and northern Mainland Southeast Asia, with the highest likelihood over the eastern Maritime Continent, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1). Most of the models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile for the mentioned regions. Elsewhere, no dominant tercile is predicted (Figure 1). Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is relatively good for most of the Maritime Continent and low to moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for January 2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for January 2026. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for January based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.