Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: May 2025
Issued: 30 Apr 2025
For May 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent, with near- to above-normal temperature for Mainland Southeast Asia.
For May 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and near- to above-normal temperature for Mainland Southeast Asia, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models (Figures 1 – 3) predict a high likelihood of above-normal temperature over the Maritime Continent. For Mainland Southeast Asia, the ECMWF and UK Met Office models predict a higher chance of near-normal temperature, while the NCEP model predicts a higher chance of above-normal temperature (although still with a lower likelihood than for the Maritime Continent). Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good for most of Southeast Asia, while the skill for near-normal temperature is moderate for most of Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for May 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for May 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for May 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for May 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for May based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.