Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: July 2025
Issued: 24 Jun 2025
For July 2025, an increased chance of above-normal rainfall is predicted for the southern Maritime Continent.
For July 2025, above-normal rainfall is predicted for the southern and eastern Maritime Continent based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1), with most models (more than six models, Figure 2) predicting above-normal rainfall as the dominant tercile for the southern region. For the northwestern Maritime Continent and southern Mainland Southeast Asia, below-normal rainfall is predicted by some of the models (4 – 6 models in agreement). Model skill is moderate to good for predicting above-normal rainfall over the southern Maritime Continent, and low to moderate for predicting below-normal rainfall for the mentioned regions.
For most of the rest of the Maritime Continent as well as Mainland Southeast Asia, there is little to no agreement on the dominant tercile (less than four models in agreement, Figure 2). Model skill is moderate for the Maritime Continent outside of the southern region, and low to moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for July 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for July 2025. Where there no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).