Rainfall

Monthly Rainfall Outlook: February 2026

Issued: 31 Jan 2026

For February 2026, above-normal rainfall is predicted for the northeastern Maritime Continent. 

For February 2026, above-normal rainfall is predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1). Below-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of the central and western Maritime Continent. For the northeastern and central Maritime Continent regions, most of the models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict above-normal rainfall as the dominant tercile for the northeastern region and below-normal rainfall as the dominant tercile over central Borneo, while only four to six models agree on below normal rainfall over the western region. Model skill is good for predicting above-normal rainfall over the northeastern Maritime Continent and low to moderate for below-normal rainfall over the western and central Maritime Continent. 

For Mainland Southeast Asia, much of the models (four to six, Figure 2) predict below-normal rainfall as the most likely tercile over parts of the central and southern region (Figure 1). Elsewhere in Mainland Southeast Asia there is little agreement between the models. Model skill is moderate to good for below-normal rainfall over southern Mainland Southeast Asia, and low for the rest of the region. 
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Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for February 2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for January 2026. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for January based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
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Figure 4: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for January based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).

The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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