MJO

MJO Fortnightly Update

Issued: 11 May 2026

 

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) in the beginning of May 2026. Most models predict the MJO signal to weaken and become inactive by the start of the forecast period and to remain inactive during Week 1 (11 – 17 May). Most models predict an MJO signal to emerge over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) either in Week 2 (18 – 24 May) or after the forecast period.

ALL Western MC Central MC Southern MC Eastern MC Central MSA Philippines
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Figure 1: Below-normal and Above-normal rainfall frequencies for MJO phases based on GPCP (reference period: 2001-2020).

For each MJO phase, the below- and above-normal rainfall frequencies are computed as the ratio of days with values exceeding the lower upper tercile thresholds, respectively, to the total number of days in that phase.

N corresponds to the number of days for each MJO phase.
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Figure 2: Correlation heatmap between RMM amplitude and 20–90 days bandpass-filtered daily rainfall anomalies based on GPCP data (Reference period: 2001–2020); Only correlation significant at the 95% level is shown. 

MC = Maritime Continent; MSA = Mainland Southeast Asia.
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.