ENSO
ENSO Outlook: March 2026
This page considers the ENSO outlook for the next three to six months, and the typical impact of El Niño and La Niña events on rainfall in Southeast Asia.
Current SST conditions are shown on the climate monitoring node website: sst - SEA Climate Monitoring
Latest Climate Outlook (December 2025 – May 2026): La Niña conditions expected into DJF 2025/2026, global climate models predict transition into ENSO-neutral conditions subsequently
Updated: Oct 2025
Recent analysis of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were below-average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and, along with atmospheric indicators such as stronger trade winds and increased cloudiness in the western Pacific, indicate La Niña or La Niña-like conditions.
International climate outlooks predict weak or moderate La Niña conditions for December 2025 to February 2026. After DJF 2025/2026, most models indicate a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, although there remains a possibility that La Niña may persist beyond early 2026.
Latest Model Outlook
Model outlooks from Copernicus C3S (Figure 1), based on the Relative Nino3.4 SST index, show that models predict the La Niña conditions continue weakening, with a return to ENSO-neutral conditions very likely from March 2026 onwards. From June – July 2026, models predict either ENSO neutral or El Niño conditions, with a higher chance of El Niño conditions. However, there is considerable uncertainty in the long-term forecasts at this time of the year.
