Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: April-June 2026 (AMJ)
For AMJ 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the ASEAN region.
For AMJ 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the ASEAN region (Figure 1). For the southern ASEAN region most models (more than six models) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile over this region (Figure 2). For the northern ASEAN region, most models agree on above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile for the southernmost and northernmost regions, with some models (4 to 6 models) agreeing on the most likely tercile elsewhere (Figure 2). Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good for the southern ASEAN region and moderate to good for predicting above-normal temperature for the northern ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for AMJ 2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for AMJ 2026. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Average climatological temperature for AMJ based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.