For SON 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of Southeast Asia, apart from parts of the southeastern Maritime Continent where a mix of below- to above-normal temperature is predicted, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1). For the southeastern Maritime Continent, much of the models agree on the most likely tercile (four to six models, Figure 2). Elsewhere, most models (more than six) are in agreement that above-normal is the most likely tercile. Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good at this time of the year, as well as for below-normal temperature over the southeastern Maritime Continent.

Temperature

Temperature

Seasonal Temperature Outlook: September-November 2026 (SON)