Temperature

Seasonal Temperature Outlook: October-December 2022 (OND)

Issued: 30 Sep 2022

For OND 2022, below- to near-normal temperatures are favoured for parts of the equatorial region and much of the Mainland Southeast Asia, with above-normal temperature favoured elsewhere.

For OND 2022, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), below- to near-normal temperatures are predicted over parts of the equatorial region and much of Mainland Southeast Asia, while above-normal temperatures are predicted for northwest Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the western and eastern Maritime Continent. All models (Figures 1-3) predict below-normal temperatures over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, but with a relatively lower likelihood. The ECMWF model shows the largest extent of below-normal temperature over parts of the southern Maritime Continent, followed by the NCEP model.

The model skill for below- and above-normal temperatures for most of the ASEAN region is moderate to good. The model skill for near-normal temperature is low to moderate over the equatorial region and Mainland Southeast Asia.

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Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for OND 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for OND 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for OND 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for OND 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for OND based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).

The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.