Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: January-March 2026 (JFM)
Issued: 30 Dec 2025
For JFM 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and western Mainland Southeast Asia.
For JFM 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent (Figure 1). Most models (more than six models) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile over this region (Figure 2). Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good for most of the Maritime Continent.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal temperature is predicted over the western portion, with near- to above-normal temperature elsewhere (Figure 1). Most models agree on above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile for western Mainland Southeast Asia, with some models agreeing on the most likely tercile for central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia (Figure 2). Model skill is generally moderate to good for predicting above-normal temperature for Mainland Southeast Asia and low for predicting near-normal temperature.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for JFM 2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for JFM 2026. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.