Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: April-June 2024 (AMJ)
Issued: 31 Mar 2024
For AMJ 2024, the models predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over the ASEAN region.
For AMJ 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the region. Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is good over most of the region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for AMJ 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for AMJ 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for AMJ 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for AMJ 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for AMJ based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.