Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: August-October 2025 (ASO)
For ASO 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted over Southeast Asia.
For ASO 2025, an increase in chance of above-normal temperature is predicted for Southeast Asia, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1). The probability of above-normal temperature is high for most of the region, except over northeast Mainland Southeast Asia and southern Borneo. Most models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile. Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good for most of Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for ASO 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for ASO 2025. Where there no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for ASO based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.