Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: November 2025 - January 2026 (NDJ)
Issued: 24 Oct 2025
For NDJ 2025-2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent, with near-normal temperature predicted for central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia.
For NDJ 2025-2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent while a mix of near- to above-normal temperature is predicted over Mainland Southeast Asia (Figure 1). Over most of the Maritime Continent and northwestern Mainland Southeast Asia, most models (more than six models) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile. Over parts of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, near-normal temperature is generally predicted. There is less agreement between models for these regions, with some models (4 – 6) predicting near-normal temperature. Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good for most of Southeast Asia, and generally moderate for predicting near-normal temperature for the mention region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for NDJ 2025-2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for SON 2025. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Average climatological temperature for NDJ based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.