Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: October-December 2023 (OND)
Issued: 29 Sep 2023
For OND 2023, the models predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
For OND 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the region, apart from the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean where there is a moderate confidence of below-normal temperature. In the southern Maritime Continent, the NCEP and ECMWF models (Figures 1 and 2) predict the highest confidence for above-normal temperature, with the UKMO model (Figure 3) predicting also above normal temperature but with slightly less confidence. Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is relatively good.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for OND 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for OND 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.