Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: November 2023 - January 2024 (NDJ)
Issued: 31 Oct 2023
For NDJ 2023-2024, the models predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
For NDJ 2023-2024, above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the region, especially over the land. In the southern Maritime Continent, the NCEP and ECMWF models (Figures 1 and 2) predict above-normal temperature with the highest confidence, and the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predicts above-normal temperature over much of the region apart from the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean where below-normal temperature is predicted. Models’ skill for predicting below- and above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is relatively good.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for NDJ 2023-2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for NDJ 2023-2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.