Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: December 2023 - February 2024 (DJF)
Issued: 30 Nov 2023
For DJF 2023-2024, the models predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over the ASEAN region.
For DJF 2023-2024, above-normal temperature is predicted for the ASEAN region, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region. Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is relatively good for much of the region, apart from western half of Mainland Southeast Asia with low to moderate model skill.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for DJF 2023-2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for DJF 2023-2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for DJF based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.