Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: August-October 2023 (ASO)
Issued: 31 Jul 2023
For ASO 2023, the models predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
For ASO 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the region. Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is relatively good.
Below- to near-normal temperature is predicted over coastal parts of the southern Maritime Continent, based on the multi-model ensemble. The UK Met Office and ECMWF models (Figures 2 and 3) predict below- to near-normal temperature over the eastern coast of Sumatra and the southern Maritime Continent, while the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts above-normal temperature over these regions. Models’ skill over the southern Maritime Continent is moderate to good for predicting below-normal temperature and low to moderate for predicting near-normal temperature.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for ASO 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for ASO 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.