Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: July-September 2023 (JAS)
Issued: 28 Jun 2023
For JAS 2023, the models predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
For JAS 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the region. Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is relatively good.
Below- to near-normal temperature is predicted over parts of the southern Maritime Continent and the western coast of Sumatra based on the multi-model ensemble. Below- to near-normal temperature is predicted over the western coast of Sumatra and the southern Maritime Continent by the UK Met Office model (Figure 3), and over the southwestern Maritime Continent by the ECMWF model (Figure 2). The NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts below- to near-normal temperature off the southern coast of Java. Models’ skill over the southern Maritime Continent is moderate to good for predicting below-normal temperature and low to moderate for predicting near-normal temperature.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JAS 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JAS 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.