Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: June-August 2023 (JJA)
Issued: 31 May 2023
For JJA 2023, the models predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
For JJA 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). However, the probability of above-normal temperature is generally lower over the southern Maritime Continent compared to the rest of the ASEAN region. The models disagree on the dominant tercile over southern Maritime Continent, with NCEP predicting above normal temperature (Figure 1), the ECMWF predicting near-normal temperature (Figure 2) and the UK Met Office predicting below- to-near normal temperature (Figure 3). Both the ECMWF and UK Met Office models predict below-normal temperature over the western coast of Sumatra as well.
The model skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is moderate to good. The model skill for near-normal temperature is low to moderate over southern Maritime Continent.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JJA 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JJA 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.