Temperature

For MJJ 2023, above-normal temperatures are predicted over much of the ASEAN region, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent, with the highest probability over the eastern region. Over Mainland Southeast Asia, the three models predict above-normal temperature over northern parts, with either near- or above-normal temperature elsewhere. The NCEP and ECMWF models predict a larger region of above-normal temperatures, covering most of the ASEAN region (Figures 1 and 2), followed by the UK Met Office model (Figure 3). The UK Met Office model predicts below-normal temperature over parts of the Southern Maritime Continent, near-normal temperature over much of Mainland Southeast Asia, and above-normal temperature elsewhere. The models’ skill is moderate to high for above-normal temperature, and low to moderate for near-normal and below-normal temperature over the southern Maritime Continent.