Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: April-June 2023 (AMJ)
Issued: 30 Mar 2023
For AMJ 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent.
For AMJ 2023, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent, with the highest probability over the eastern region. Over Mainland Southeast Asia, the models predict above-normal temperature over the northwestern region, with disagreement between the models elsewhere. The NCEP model predicts the larger extent of above-normal temperatures, covering most of the ASEAN region, followed by the ECMWF model and then the UK Met Office model. The ECMWF model predicts near-normal temperature over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and Java, and above-normal temperature elsewhere. The UK Met Office model predicts near-normal temperature over much of Mainland Southeast Asia, the Malay Peninsula and Java, and above-normal temperature elsewhere. The models’ skill is moderate to high for above-normal temperature, and low to moderate for near-normal temperature.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for AMJ 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for AMJ 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.