Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: March-May 2023 (MAM)
Issued: 28 Feb 2023
For MAM 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the central and eastern Maritime Continent and Myanmar. Near-normal temperature is predicted over elsewhere.
For MAM 2023, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over much of central and eastern Maritime Continent and over Myanmar, with highest probability over the eastern Maritime Continent. The ECMWF and UK Met Office models predict larger extent of above-normal temperatures over the Maritime Continent, covering Sumatra, Borneo, and eastern Maritime Continent, while the NCEP model predicts near-normal temperatures for Sumatra and above-normal for the rest of the mentioned regions.
Elsewhere, the models generally predict near-normal temperatures based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The models’ skill is moderate to high for above-normal temperature, and low to moderate for near-normal temperature.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for MAM 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for MAM 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.