Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: February-April 2023 (FMA)
Issued: 28 Jan 2023
For FMA 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over parts of the eastern Maritime Continent, Borneo, and Myanmar. Near-normal temperature is predicted over elsewhere.
For FMA 2023, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict an increased chance of near-normal temperature over much of Southeast Asia, except parts of eastern Maritime Continent, Borneo, and Myanmar where above-normal temperature is favoured. The models’ skill is moderate to high for above-normal temperature (apart from northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia), and low to moderate for near-normal temperature.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for FMA 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for FMA 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for FMA 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for FMA 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for FMA based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.