Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: January-March 2023 (JFM)
Issued: 28 Dec 2022
For JFM 2023, near-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region. Parts of eastern Maritime Continent, and Myanmar are predicted to experience above-normal temperature.
For JFM 2023, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict high-likelihood of near-normal temperature over much of Southeast Asia, except parts of eastern Maritime Continent, the equatorial region, and Myanmar where above-normal temperature is favoured. The models’ skill is low to moderate where near-normal tercile is predicted and moderate to high where above-normal tercile is predicted.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JFM 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JFM 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for JFM 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for JFM 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for JFM based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.