Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: September-November 2022 (SON)
Issued: 30 Aug 2022
For SON 2022, below- to near-normal temperatures are favoured for parts of the equatorial region and central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, with above-normal temperature favoured elsewhere.
For SON 2022, many parts of the ASEAN region are predicted to experience above-normal temperature based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with the exceptions over parts of the equatorial region and central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia where below- to near-normal temperatures are predicted. While the NCEP and ECMWF models (Figures 1 and 2) predict higher likelihood of below-normal temperatures over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predicts higher likelihood of near-normal temperature over these regions. In addition, the ECMWF model shows the largest extent of below-normal temperature over parts of the southern Maritime Continent, followed by the NCEP model.
The model skill for below- and above-normal temperatures for most of the ASEAN region is relatively good. The model skill for near-normal temperature is moderate over the equatorial region and low over Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for SON 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for SON 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for SON 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for SON 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.