Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: October-December 2022 (OND)
Issued: 30 Sep 2022
For OND 2022, below- to near-normal temperatures are favoured for parts of the equatorial region and much of the Mainland Southeast Asia, with above-normal temperature favoured elsewhere.
For OND 2022, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), below- to near-normal temperatures are predicted over parts of the equatorial region and much of Mainland Southeast Asia, while above-normal temperatures are predicted for northwest Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the western and eastern Maritime Continent. All models (Figures 1-3) predict below-normal temperatures over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, but with a relatively lower likelihood. The ECMWF model shows the largest extent of below-normal temperature over parts of the southern Maritime Continent, followed by the NCEP model.
The model skill for below- and above-normal temperatures for most of the ASEAN region is moderate to good. The model skill for near-normal temperature is low to moderate over the equatorial region and Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for OND 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for OND 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.