Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: November 2022 - January 2023 (NDJ)
Issued: 31 Oct 2022
For NDJ 2022-2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the equatorial region and the eastern half of Maritime Continent, as well as over northwestern Mainland Southeast Asia.
For NDJ 2022-2023, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the equatorial region and the eastern half of Maritime Continent, with the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) having the highest likelihood, followed by the NCEP model (Figure 1) and the ECMWF model (Figure 2). Near-normal temperature is predicted elsewhere over the Maritime Continent. The model skill over the Maritime Continent is good for above-normal temperature and moderate for near-normal temperature.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal temperature is predicted for the northwestern region, with below- to near-normal temperatures elsewhere. The NCEP model (Figure 1) has the largest spatial coverage of below-normal temperature over Mainland Southeast Asia. The model skill for below- and above-normal temperatures is moderate to good for southern Mainland Southeast Asia and low to moderate elsewhere in the region. Model skill is low for near-normal temperature in this region.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal temperature is predicted for the northwestern region, with below- to near-normal temperatures elsewhere. The NCEP model (Figure 1) has the largest spatial coverage of below-normal temperature over Mainland Southeast Asia. The model skill for below- and above-normal temperatures is moderate to good for southern Mainland Southeast Asia and low to moderate elsewhere in the region. Model skill is low for near-normal temperature in this region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for NDJ 2022-2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for NDJ 2022-2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for NDJ based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.