Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: August-October 2022 (ASO)
Issued: 31 Jul 2022
For ASO 2022, above-normal temperature is favoured for much of the ASEAN region except for Borneo, Java, and southern Sumatra where below- to near-normal temperature is predicted.
For ASO 2022, above-normal temperature is predicted for much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with the exceptions over parts of Borneo, Java, and southern Sumatra where below- to near-normal temperatures are predicted. While the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts higher likelihood of near-normal temperatures over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, both the ECMWF and UK Met Office models (Figures 2 and 3) predict higher likelihood of above-normal temperature over these regions. In addition, the ECMWF model shows the largest extent of below-normal temperature over parts of the southern Maritime Continent, followed by the NCEP model.
The model skill for below and above-normal temperatures for most of the ASEAN region is moderate to good. The model skill for near-normal temperature is relatively moderate over the equatorial regions.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for ASO 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for ASO 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for ASO 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for ASO 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.