Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: July-September 2022 (JAS)
Issued: 30 Jun 2022
For JAS 2022, the models predict above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
For JAS 2022, above-normal temperature is predicted for much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with the exceptions over parts of Borneo and southern Sumatra where near-normal temperature is predicted. The NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts a high likelihood of above-normal temperature everywhere apart from southern Borneo. Both the ECMWF and UK Met Office models (Figures 2 and 3) predict relatively lower likelihood of above-normal temperature over northern Mainland Southeast Asia. Furthermore, the ECMWF model shows the largest extent of near-normal temperature around Borneo, followed by the UK Met Office model.
The model skill for above-normal temperature for most of the ASEAN region is moderate to good. The model skill for near-normal temperature is low to moderate over Borneo.
The model skill for above-normal temperature for most of the ASEAN region is moderate to good. The model skill for near-normal temperature is low to moderate over Borneo.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JAS 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JAS 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for JAS based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.