Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: June-August 2022 (JJA)
Issued: 31 May 2022
For JJA 2022, the models predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
For JJA 2022, above-normal temperature is predicted for much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). However, the probability of above-normal temperature is generally lower over Mainland Southeast Asia compared to the Maritime Continent. The ECMWF and UK Met Office models predict higher likelihood of near-normal temperatures over northern Mainland Southeast Asia (Figures 2 and 3), whereas the NCEP model predicts higher likelihood of near-normal temperatures over southern Mainland Southeast Asia (Figure 1). All three models also predict near-normal temperature over parts of Borneo.
The model skill for predicting above-normal temperature for Mainland Southeast Asia and Maritime Continent is moderate to good. The model skill for near-normal temperature is low to moderate over Mainland Southeast Asia and Borneo.
The model skill for predicting above-normal temperature for Mainland Southeast Asia and Maritime Continent is moderate to good. The model skill for near-normal temperature is low to moderate over Mainland Southeast Asia and Borneo.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JJA 2022.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JJA 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for JJA 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for JJA 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for JJA based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.