Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: May-July 2022 (MJJ)
Issued: 27 Apr 2022
For MJJ 2022, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent, while near-normal temperature is predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia.
For MJJ 2022, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature for most of the Maritime Continent, although with a lower chance over the northern Philippines, and parts of Borneo and Java. The model skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent is relatively good.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, an increased chance of near- normal temperature is predicted by the three models over much of the region, apart from over northern Myanmar. The model skill for this region for below-normal temperature is moderate, and low for near-normal temperature for this season.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, an increased chance of near- normal temperature is predicted by the three models over much of the region, apart from over northern Myanmar. The model skill for this region for below-normal temperature is moderate, and low for near-normal temperature for this season.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for MJJ 2022.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for MJJ 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for MJJ 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for MJJ 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for MJJ based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.