Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: April-June 2022 (AMJ)
Issued: 31 Mar 2022
For AMJ 2022, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent, while below- to near-normal temperatures are predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia.
For AMJ 2022, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature for much of the Maritime Continent, apart from northern Peninsular Malaysia and northern half of the Philippines where near-normal temperature is predicted. The model skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent is relatively good.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, below- to near- normal temperatures are predicted by the three models over much of the region, apart from over northern Myanmar. Compared to the NCEP model, both the ECMWF and the UK Met Office models are predicting a higher chance of below-normal temperature for much of northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia, in particular for northern Viet Nam, Lao PDR and northeastern Thailand. The model skill for this region for below- to near- normal terciles are low to moderate for this season.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for AMJ 2022.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for AMJ 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for AMJ 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for AMJ 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.