Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: March-May 2022 (MAM)
Issued: 28 Feb 2022
For MAM 2022, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent.
For MAM 2022, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent, apart from the Malay Peninsula where near-normal temperature is predicted, and the northern Philippines where no dominant tercile is predicted. The NCEP model is the most confidence of the above-normal temperature, followed by the UK Met Office model and then the ECMWF model. Based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), the highest likelihood for above-normal temperature is over the eastern Maritime Continent.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, there is ether no dominant tercile or disagreement between the three models. While the ECMWF and UK Met Office models are predicting below-normal temperatures for much of Mainland Southeast Asia, the NCEP model predicts above-normal temperature for western Myanmar and near-normal temperature for southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia.
The seasonal models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature is relatively high across Southeast Asia, and moderate for predicting below-normal temperature over Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for MAM 2022.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for MAM 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.