Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: February-April 2022 (FMA)
Issued: 31 Jan 2022
For FMA 2022, near- to above-normal temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent.
For FMA 2022, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent, apart from the Malay Peninsula where near-normal temperature is predicted, and the northern half of the Philippines where no dominant tercile is predicted. Based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), the highest likelihood for above-normal temperature is over the southeastern Maritime Continent.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, based on the multi-model ensemble, there is ether no dominant tercile or disagreement between the three models, apart from the northeastern most part of the region where below-normal temperature is predicted, and southern Myanmar, where above-normal temperature is predicted.
The seasonal models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature is relatively high across Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for FMA 2022.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for FMA 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.