Temperature

Seasonal Temperature Outlook: February-April 2022 (FMA)

Issued: 31 Jan 2022

For FMA 2022, near- to above-normal temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent.

For FMA 2022, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent, apart from the Malay Peninsula where near-normal temperature is predicted, and the northern half of the Philippines where no dominant tercile is predicted. Based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), the highest likelihood for above-normal temperature is over the southeastern Maritime Continent.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, based on the multi-model ensemble, there is ether no dominant tercile or disagreement between the three models, apart from the northeastern most part of the region where below-normal temperature is predicted, and southern Myanmar, where above-normal temperature is predicted.

The seasonal models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature is relatively high across Southeast Asia.

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Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for FMA 2022.
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Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for FMA 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for FMA based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).

The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.