Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: January-March 2022 (JFM)
Issued: 30 Dec 2021
For JFM 2022, above-normal temperature is favoured by the models over much of the Maritime Continent (apart from the Malay Peninsula) and Myanmar.
For JFM 2022, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent (apart from Peninsular Malaysia where near-normal temperature is predicted). The highest likelihood for above-normal temperatures is over the eastern Maritime Continent (Figure 4). The UK Met Office model predicts the smallest area of above-normal temperature over the Maritime Continent, with a mix of near-normal and above-normal as well as no dominant tercile for the western Maritime Continent.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), above-normal temperature is predicted over Myanmar and near-normal temperature is predicted over southeast tip of Mainland Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, there is ether no dominant tercile or disagreement between the three models (Figures 1-3).
The seasonal models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature is relatively high across Southeast Asia, except for the northern parts of the region where the skill is low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JFM 2022.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JFM 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.