Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: December 2021 - February 2022 (DJF)
Issued: 30 Nov 2021
For DJF 2021-2022, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent and Myanmar.
For DJF 2021-2022, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent. The highest likelihood for above-normal temperatures is over the eastern Maritime Continent (Figure 4).
For Mainland Southeast Asia, the three models (Figures 1-3) predicted a mix of below- to above-normal temperatures. While all three models predict above-normal temperature over Myanmar, there is either no dominant tercile predicted or disagreement between the models elsewhere.
The seasonal models’ skill is relatively high for the Maritime Continent. For Mainland Southeast Asia, models’ skill is moderate to relatively high for below- and above-normal and low to moderate for near-normal.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for DJF 2021-2022.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for DJF 2021-2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.