Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: November 2021 - January 2022 (NDJ)
Issued: 29 Oct 2021
For NDJ 2021-2022, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent and Myanmar.
For NDJ 2021-2022, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent (apart from Java where near-normal temperature is predicted). For Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal temperature is predicted over Myanmar, with no dominant tercile elsewhere.
The seasonal models’ skill is relatively high for the Maritime Continent and moderate to relatively high for Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for NDJ 2021-2022.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for NDJ 2021-2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for NDJ based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.