Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: October-December 2021 (OND)
Issued: 30 Sep 2021
For OND 2021, above-normal temperature is favoured over much of the Maritime Continent. Parts of Viet Nam, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Thailand are predicted to experience below- to near-normal temperatures.
For OND 2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent (apart from southern Sumatra, Java and southern Borneo where below- to near-normal temperature is predicted).
For Mainland Southeast Asia, below- to near-normal temperature is predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia, in particular below-normal temperature for northern Viet Nam, central and southern Lao PDR, northeast Cambodia, and much of Thailand. The exception is over most parts of Myanmar where above-normal tercile is predicted based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4).
The seasonal models’ skill for predicting below- and above-normal temperatures are moderate and relatively high for Mainland Southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent respectively.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for OND 2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for OND 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.