Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: September-November 2021 (SON)
Issued: 31 Aug 2021
For SON 2021, above-normal temperature is favoured for most of Southeast Asia.
For SON 2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1 – 3) – predict a high likelihood of above-normal temperature for most of the Maritime Continent, except for near-normal temperature over southern Borneo and southern Sumatra predicted by the three models and near-normal temperatures for parts of Java predicted by NCEP and ECMWF models.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal temperatures are predicted for most of the area with higher likelihood in the western region. The exceptions are over parts of eastern Thailand, Lao PDR, and northern Viet Nam where there is no dominant terciles based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4).
The models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature for Southeast Asia is moderate to high for this season.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for SON 2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for SON 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.