Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: September-November 2019 (SON)
Issued: 30 Aug 2019
For SON 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most parts of Southeast Asia except for parts of the southern Maritime Continent where below-to-near normal temperature is predicted, particularly over the ocean.
For SON 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – favour above-normal temperature over most parts of the region except for the southern Maritime Continent, where below-to-near normal temperature is predicted, in particularly over the ocean.
The models’ skill for SON temperature prediction is generally good, for both below-normal and above-normal terciles.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for SON 2019
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for SON 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.