Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: October-December 2019 (OND)
Issued: 30 Sep 2019
For OND 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most parts of Southeast Asia north of the equator, except for the southern Maritime Continent where below- or near-normal temperature is predicted over the ocean and coastal regions.
For OND 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – favour above-normal temperature over most parts of the region except for the southern Maritime Continent, where below- or near-normal temperature is predicted over the ocean and coastal regions.
The models’ skill for OND temperature prediction is good overall, for both below-normal and above-normal terciles.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for OND 2019.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for OND 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.