Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: November 2019 - January 2020 (NDJ)
Issued: 30 Oct 2019
For NDJ 2019-2020, above-normal temperature is favoured for most parts of Southeast Asia.
For NDJ 2019-2020, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – favour above-normal temperature over most parts of the region. The models are most confident over the Maritime Continent and less confident regarding the above-normal temperature over the northern part of the region.
The models’ skill for NDJ temperature prediction is good overall for the above-normal tercile.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for NDJ 2019-2020.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for NDJ 2019-2020.
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.