Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: August-October 2019 (ASO)
Issued: 30 Jul 2019
For ASO 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most parts of Southeast Asia except for parts of the southern Maritime Continent where below-to-near normal temperature is predicted, particularly over the ocean.
For ASO 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – favour above-normal temperature over most parts of the region except for the southern Maritime Continent, where below-to-near normal temperature is predicted, in particularly over the ocean.
The models’ skill for ASO temperature prediction is generally good, for both below-normal and above-normal terciles.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for ASO 2019.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for ASO 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.