Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: November 2020 - January 2021 (NDJ)
Issued: 26 Oct 2020
For NDJ 2020-2021, above-normal temperature is favoured over much of the Maritime Continent. Parts of Viet Nam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand are predicted to experience below- to near-normal temperatures.
For NDJ 2020-2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent (apart from the most southern part of the region where near- to above-normal temperature is predicted). However, below- to near-normal temperature is predicted over Viet Nam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand.
The seasonal models’ skill scores for predicting below- and above-normal temperatures are moderate and relatively high for Mainland Southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent, respectively.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for NDJ 2020-2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for NDJ 2020-2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.