Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: December 2020 - February 2021 (DJF)
Issued: 28 Nov 2020
For DJF 2020-2021, above-normal temperature is favoured by the models over much of the Maritime Continent, while near- to below-normal temperature is expected for much of Mainland Southeast Asia.
For DJF 2020-2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent (apart from the most southern part of the region where near- to above-normal temperature is predicted). The highest probability for above-normal temperature is from the NCEP model, followed by the ECMWF and UK Met Office models.
All three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict near- to below-normal temperature for much of the Mainland Southeast Asia (expect for Myanmar where above-normal temperature is predicted). In particular, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 2 and 3) are predicting below-normal temperature for Northeast Thailand, Laos and Northern Viet Nam.
The seasonal models’ skill for above-normal temperature is relatively high for the Maritime Continent. The models’ skill is moderate to low for Mainland Southeast Asia, with better skill for predicting above-temperature than below-normal temperature.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for DJF 2020-2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for DJF 2020-2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.