Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: January-March 2021 (JFM)
Issued: 31 Dec 2020
For JFM 2021, above-normal temperature is favoured by the models over eastern Maritime Continent, with below- to near-normal temperatures over much of Mainland Southeast Asia, except Myanmar.
For JFM 2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predicts above-normal temperature for eastern Maritime Continent. The model skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent is relatively good.
For the Mainland Southeast Asia except Myanmar, below- to near- normal temperatures are predicted by the three models. In particular, the ECMWF and the UK Met Office models are predicting a higher chance of below-normal temperature for much of the eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, in particular northern Viet Nam, Lao PDR and north-eastern Thailand. The model skill for the below- to near- normal terciles are low to moderate for these regions for this season.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JFM 2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JFM 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.