Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: February-April 2021 (FMA)
Issued: 31 Jan 2021
For FMA 2021, above-normal temperature is favoured by the models over eastern Maritime Continent and Myanmar, with below- to near-normal temperatures over much of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, and near- to above-normal temperatures over the western Maritime Continent.
For FMA 2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature for eastern Maritime Continent and Myanmar. The model skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent is relatively good while the skill is low to moderate for Myanmar.
For the rest of Mainland Southeast Asia, below- to near- normal temperatures are predicted by the three models. In particular, the ECMWF and the UK Met Office models are predicting a higher chance of below-normal temperature for much of the eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, in particular northern Viet Nam, Lao PDR and north-eastern Thailand. The model skill for the below- to near- normal terciles is low to moderate for these regions for this season.
For the western Maritime Continent, the temperature is predicted to be near- to above-normal. The model skill is relatively good for this region in predicting above-normal temperature, while only low to moderate for near-normal temperature.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for FMA 2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for FMA 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.