Temperature

For MAM 2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature for much of the equatorial region, in particular Sumatra, Borneo, Sulawesi and Papua. Near-normal temperature is predicted for the Malay Peninsula as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). Elsewhere in the Maritime Continent, the model’s predictions are mixed. For Java, the NCEP model (Figure 1) is predicting a high likelihood of above-normal temperature, while the ECMWF (Figure 2) and UK Met Office (Figure 3) models are predicting near- to above-normal temperature. For the Philippines, the NCEP and ECMWF models predict above-normal temperature, while the UK Met Office model predicts near normal temperature. The model skill for the above-normal tercile category for the Maritime Continent is moderate to good.

For central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, below- to near-normal temperatures are predicted by the three models as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). In particular, the UK Met Office model is predicting a higher chance of below-normal temperature for much of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, while the NCEP and the ECMWF models are predicting mostly near-normal temperature. For Myanmar, the NCEP and the UK Met Office models are predicting above-normal temperature, while the ECMWF model is predicting below- to near-normal temperature. The model skill is low to moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia.