Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: April-June 2021 (AMJ)
Issued: 30 Mar 2021
For AMJ 2021, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over the equatorial region (10°S - 5°N) and southern Philippines.
For AMJ 2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature for much of land area of the equatorial region (10°S - 5°N) and southern Philippines. The model skill for predicting above-normal tercile for the Maritime Continent is relatively good.
There is disagreement between the models for the Mainland Southeast Asia. While the ECMWF (Figure 2) model predicts near-normal temperature for much of this region, the UK Met Office (Figure 3) model predicts temperature to more likely to be below-normal. The NCEP (Figure 1) model predicts a higher likelihood of above-normal temperature for this region, in particularly over Myanmar. The model skill for this region (below- to near- normal terciles) are low to moderate for this season.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for AMJ 2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for AMJ 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.