Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: May-July 2021 (MJJ)
Issued: 30 Apr 2021
For MJJ 2021, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted for much of the Maritime Continent, with near- to above-normal temperature predicted for much of Mainland Southeast Asia.
For MJJ 2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1 – 3) – predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature for much of the Maritime Continent, apart from the northern Philippines where near- to above-normal temperature is predicted. The model skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent is moderate to high.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, near- to above-normal temperature is predicted by the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). While the ECMWF (Figure 2) and UK Met Office (Figure 3) models predict near-normal temperature for much of this region, the NCEP (Figure 1) model predicts a higher likelihood of above-normal temperature over Myanmar, Lao PDR, and Viet Nam, with near-normal temperature elsewhere. The model skill for predicting above-normal temperature for Mainland Southeast Asia is generally moderate, and low for near-normal temperature (near-normal temperature generally has the lowest predictive skill of the three terciles).
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for MJJ 2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for MJJ 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.