Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: June-August 2021 (JJA)
Issued: 31 May 2021
For JJA 2021, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted for much of the ASEAN region.
For JJA 2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1 – 3) – predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region, apart from central and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia where near-normal temperature is predicted by the NCEP model (Figure 1).The highest likelihood of above-normal temperature is over the Maritime Continent (apart from the Philippines) in all three models. The model skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent is moderate to high, and low to moderate for the Mainland Southeast Asia with lower skill in the northern region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JJA 2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JJA 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for JJA based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1981-2010).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.