Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: July-September 2021 (JAS)
Issued: 30 Jun 2021
For JAS 2021, above-normal temperature is favoured for most of the ASEAN region except for Borneo and southern Sumatra where near- to above-normal temperature is predicted.
For JAS 2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1 – 3) – predict high likelihood of above-normal temperature for most of the ASEAN region. However, near-normal temperature conditions are predicted over parts of Borneo and southern Sumatra by all three models, coinciding with the above-normal rainfall predicted over these regions.
The models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is moderate to high for this season.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JAS 2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JAS 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for JAS based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.