Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: October-December 2020 (OND)
Issued: 28 Sep 2020
For OND 2020, above-normal temperature is favoured over much of the Maritime Continent. Parts of Viet Nam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand are predicted to experience below- to near-normal temperatures.
For OND 2020, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent (apart from southern Sumatra, Java Islands and Kalimantan where near-normal temperature is predicted). However, below- to near-normal temperature is predicted over Viet Nam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand.
The seasonal models’ skill scores for predicting below- and above-normal temperatures are moderate and relatively high for Mainland Southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent, respectively.
The seasonal models’ skill scores for predicting below- and above-normal temperatures are moderate and relatively high for Mainland Southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent, respectively.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for OND 2020.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for OND 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for OND based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1981-2010).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.