Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: May-July 2018 (MJJ)
Issued: 30 Apr 2018
For MJJ 2018, the NCEP CFSv2 model predicts near to above average for the ASEAN region, with the warmest temperature predicted for the eastern Maritime Continent (Figure 1). The skill of the NCEP CFSv2 model against Aphrodite (Figure 2) and ERA Interim (Figure 3) is generally good for MJJ.
The MJJ temperature outlook is broadly similar to the other models consulted (ECMWF, JMA, and UK Met Office), although the outlooks for the three models are slightly closer to near average conditions.
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for MJJ 2018.
Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s MJJ (Apr-May-Jun) temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s MJJ (Apr-May-Jun) temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.